Referendum and its Aftermath

Leavers to win

In or out the repercussions will be dynamic. Leavers to win will force a new perspective on many issues. The WHO (World Trade Organisation), ignored during debates (arguments) will present itself as the largest global trading platform for new trading opportunities.

The go-it-alone will galvanise a national spirit of “let’s show them” and create an atmosphere of liberation.

Non-Europeans who are dealing with the UK will feel that the association is more  ‘true Brit’ and not convoluted or contaminated with European, self-indulgent interference.

There will be massive government reshuffling and the winners will be scoring Brownie points over the promoters of Armageddon if we leave. Political, social and economic developments whether positive or negative will have the ownership of the In or Out brigade, depending on whether the outcome confirms their historical pontification.

Past Treasury projections will be blown out of the water and credibility lost. Future budgets will be contested on all their assumptions and the Chancellor will now be reluctant to pose with the red box in case it provokes ridicule.

The Leavers will continue to quote the analogous stats which were marched out as proven facts to substantiate the Remain’s case. They will gloat in their inaccuracies and irrelevances.

 

Remainers to win

If, on the other hand, the Remainers win they will have a field day. “I told you so” will permeate all their future commentary and dialogue.

We can now get on with business and more deeply appreciate the benefits of being a positive member of this great European Club. Stronger together is the maxim: collective negotiating and real democracy in action.

MEPs feel vindicated and they can now get on with their real job of meetings, talkings, friendships, socialising and pointless office moves.

However, the Remainers will have a real challenge in generating enthusiasm for their success. Their celebrations will have a certain vacuous component as the win means no change and an ‘as we were’ result.

The aftermath for the winners/losers

I believe that the Remain camp will win the race and that the Leave crew will obtain a significant slice of the vote.

I think the problem for the Leavers is that their new journey is not predictive. Unlike the Remainers, for example, they cannot quote Treasury figures, however speculative. To date they keep drumming on about this £350 million per week we will have in our pocket. But what do we do with it? They believe they have a new journey to make but it is like having a satnav and not having the postcode.

Remain will win at a price. The EU has been held up to scrutiny and failed the test. Remainers and Leavers are now more aware of the extravagances, the workings and the often spurious outcomes this distant cosy Club produces. They will now not be so tolerant.

Other member countries will not have enjoyed the torture and uncertainty the renegade Brits have put them through and the voice it has given their own dissenters. And when Blighty comes back to the table and asks for a few favours to appease the ‘rabble’ back home, “Non!” will resonate throughout the agenda.

 

Winners or losers on June 23rd?

Not really. Just the beginning of a lumpy roller coaster ride for the Government, the EU and a more disgruntled electorate.

 

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